Romney Gains 7 Points In One Month In PA

Hot Air Blog

If you want to see what momentum looks like in what has suddenly become a battleground state, look no farther than the Franklin & Marshall poll data for Pennsylvania. The CBS affiliate in Philadelphia reported the results this morning, showing Barack Obama with a four-point lead in a state that Democrats cannot afford to lose under any circumstances — but just might:

A new Franklin and Marshall Poll shows that Republican Mitt Romney is now within striking distance of President Obama in Pennsylvania.

Less than a week before election day, the Franklin and Marshall College Poll shows Romney now trailing Obama by just four percentage points among likely Pennsylvania voters — 45-percent to 49-percent, compared to a nine point deficit in a September F&M survey. Poll director Terry Madonna says Romney is closing in, but he may be running out of time.

This is the first time in the series that Romney has gotten out of the 30s, jumping up 5 points in a month. At the same time, Obama has lost a couple of points, which could be within the margin of error, Still, that’s a change of seven points in the gap in just a month, and shows why Team Obama has begun spending money in Pennsylvania playing on the defense.

Let’s look again at the two key indicators in this election. Among independents, Romney has a sixteen point lead, 48/32. Ten percent goes to “other,” with another 10% undecided. Assuming most of the undecideds break away from the incumbent — as is the norm — Romney might easily score a majority. Obama won this demo in 2008 by 19, 58/39.

Next, let’s look at the gender gap. Obama has the advantage here, winning women by 14 points, but losing men by six for an overall +8. In 2008, Obama won men by three and women by 18 for an overall +21 in the gender gap.

Finally, let’s take a look at the sample. The D/R/I in this survey is D+13 at 50/37/11, which tracks fairly closely to party registration but not to turnout. In 2008, the D/R/I was 44/37/18 in a Democratic wave election, and in 2010 it was 40/37/23. If the turnout comes closer to 2010 with these internals, Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.

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